Monday, October 28, 2013
Executive Forum • Energy in the Raw

Come one day early and attend this special Executive Forum. Listen to some of the top thought leaders in North American energy as they set the table for 2014 in the areas of NGLs, Natural Gas, Biofuels and Heavy Fuels.

8:30-9:00 a.m.
Registration/Continental Breakfast
Tom Kloza
9:00-9:15 a.m.
Opening Remarks
Tom Kloza, Chief Oil Analyst, OPIS
9:15-10:00 a.m.
The Natural Gas Game-Change; Why Does It Matter & Will It Continue?
Francisco Blanch, Managing Director and Head of Global Commodity Research, Bank of America Merrill Lynch
Francisco BlanchWhen it comes to transforming the North American energy landscape in the last five years, few could argue that the boom in natural gas production and the heavily advantaged prices for U.S. and Canadian companies has an equal. Disinflation, or during some periods, very temperate pricing for natural gas has tilted the axis of economic power and resulted in a privileged North American continent, altering pricing points for gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, gas liquids, and petrochemicals. Top Wall Street analyst Francisco Blanch examines whether companies doing business on this “privileged continent” can continue to rely on cheap natural gas, and detail whether the imbalance between the “haves” and “have-nots” will continue or perhaps be altered. Bonus: Blanch looks at the macroeconomic picture for crude oil and natural gas futures , and render expert analysis of the likely inflection points to come.
10:00-10:45 a.m.
Fresh Brew: The Northern Tier Battle Between Guaranteed Oil Supply & Guaranteed Demand
Katherine Spector, Head of Commodities Strategy, CIBC World Markets
Katherine Spector

The U.S. may be on the threshold of less dependence on Middle Eastern or South American crude but that won’t happen without a major reshuffling in the flow of oil between the U.S. and Canada. Estimates are that Canadian crude output might expand by between the flow of oil between the U.S. and Canada. Estimates are that somewhere between 1.5-million b/d and 2-million b/d of additional Canadian oil may come on stream this decade, with total output flirting with 5-million b/d by 2020.

But like most oil data points, the numbers and the direction in which the oil will head are subject to interpretation. Meanwhile, there are questions as to whether U.S. refiners, or other alternative markets will be the recipients of the extra barrels.  In a must-attend session, we bring back Supply Summit veteran Katherine Spector. Katherine details what is certain and what is unsure as the North American production landscape expands, and give a measured view of the numbers that really represent “break-even” levels for the various grades.  She even looks at the unique problems that come with grades that have traded between $11 bbl and $60 bbl off of world futures’ benchmarks. And beyond the political rhetoric, Katherine gives an unbiased view of how a completed Keystone Pipeline might impact North American refiner costs.
10:45-11:15 a.m.
Refreshment Break
11:15 a.m.-12:00 p.m.
Midstream and NGL Outlook
Peter Fasullo, Principal and Owner, En*Vantage
Caught between low natural gas prices and high refined products’ numbers has been the Midstreams’ segment, with incredible volatility in NGL numbers, and diversity across the supply chain for everything from ethane to butane to natural gasoline. The economics of natural gas liquids are crucial to investment and planning for everyone from fuel marketers, to refiners and investment banks. Whether it’s the disposal of more light ends, or the construction of new fractionation and export facilities, smart executives across production, refining, marketing, and the petrochemical industry need a roadmap for 2014 and beyond. OPIS is pleased to have one of the preeminent experts on gas liquids in North American and international markets. In the space of less than an hour, attendees learn what pivot points for supply and pricing need to be appreciated across the sector.
12:00-1:15 p.m.
Networking Lunch
1:15-2:00 p.m.
Cushion or Crisis: Global Energy Outlook
Vikas Dwivedi, Global Oil & Gas Strategist, Macquarie Securities Group
Vikas Dwivedi During the first half of 2013, crude oil benchmarks saw some of the lightest volatility of the decade, but that changed violently in the third quarter. Some of that change was due to the influx of record amounts of fund money, and history has shown that “following the money” can be a folly that has foiled more than a few trading desks and companies. What are the key fundamentals that are likely to shape crude markets across six continents in the next 18 months? How much can we trust IEA or EIA forecasts when they rely on GDP and other variables that are by nature, often unpredictable? Veteran global oil and gas strategist Vikas Dwivedi shares his perspective, bringing the unique skills of a major refinery operations engineer and an oil derivatives’ trader.
2:00-2:45 p.m.
Bottom’s Up? Or Down?: Asphalt and Heavy Fuels In The Next Two Years
Greg Kaneb, Vice President of Trading, Supply & Marketing and Specialty Products, NuStar Asphalt LLC
One segment that often gets overlooked is the bottom of the refined barrel. Indeed, numerous industry thought leaders predicted as the decade began that there would be a surge in demand for asphalt, and tighter inventories. Now, as a new year looms, the industry must contend with finding a home for larger cuts of asphalt as more heavy crude comes south from Canada, and demand for traditional residual fuel bunkering dries up. What might happen to the bottom “cuts” as refiners change their feedstock, and much of the western hemisphere implements incredibly tough sulfur specs? Industry veteran Greg Kaneb brings 30+ years of light products’ marketing and logistics expertise to the table and he’ll look at the likely landscape for North American asphalt and heavy fuel into 2014 and beyond.
2:45-3:15 p.m.
Refreshment Break
3:15-4:00 p.m.
Renewables’ Risk & Rewards
John Gretzinger, Vice President, Head of Energy Products, INTL FCStone
John Gretzinger Oil products have disconnected with renewable fuels such as ethanol in the second half of 2013. Will this continue into 2014 or even beyond? What types of opportunities exist across the spectrum of U.S. transportation fuels? How can suppliers and marketers take advantage of some of these huge swings between hydrocarbons and biofuels? Top energy risk manager John Gretzinger will take a look at the evolving relationships between these battling BTUs, and what the future might hold in store for ethanol and biodiesel blending, and the future of appropriately hedging the blended barrels.

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