“Best energy conference in North America by far!”
- Christian Thalacker, VP Market Services, Spectron Group
Supply Summit Agenda
Sunday, October 19, 2008
7:00 – 9:00 p.m.
Welcoming Reception
Sponsored by

Day 1 • Monday, October 20, 2008
7:30 – 8:30 a.m.
Continental Breakfast/Registration/Exhibit Hall Open
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8:30 – 9:30 a.m.
A New Perspective on Refining
Jeff Morris, CEO, Alon USA
The first round of Alon USA’s growth was all about downstream integration, where refining was matched up with terminaling, transportation and retail. With the purchase of Valero’s 83,000 b/d Krotz Springs, La., refinery, that template has changed. Very quietly, fast-growing Alon has been the most acquisitive company in U.S. refining in the last 3 years, buying plants when the assets were hot, and when they were not. CEO Jeff Morris details how and why Alon has been willing to be creative and make a still larger bet on U.S. refining and marketing.
9:30 – 10:15 a.m.
Making Money On Transportation: NuStar’s New Ventures
Curt Anastasio, President and CEO, NuStar Energy LP
Growth is the name of the game at NuStar Energy, but that growth is no longer confined to adding tanks and terminals. The last year has seen the company diversify into asphalt refining and sales as well as trading and marketing. NuStar President and CEO Curt Anastasio will detail what’s next for the limited partnership, and why the company continues to be bullish about its core business of transporting and storing products. You’ll learn how future plans could include some of the production of diesel at plants normally associated with heavy products.
10:15 – 10:45 a.m.
Refreshment Break/Exhibit Hall Open
10:45 – 11:30 a.m.
The Dark Side: Will U.S. Refined Products be Under Siege?
Mark Flannery, Managing Director and Global Head of Energy Research, Credit Suisse
For much of 2008, U.S. and international oil markets saw fundamentals take a back seat to money flow, currency fluctuation and worries about global demand outpacing supply. But very quietly, the world is about to get its largest boost in refining capacity in a generation. A top investment banking house will look at what lies next not just for crude oil, but more importantly, for the relationships between the marquee products such as gasoline & diesel and the various crude slates. You’ll find out how huge regions of the country may be living on borrowed time, and discover which inefficient refineries might even close before decade’s end, and which new U.S. markets may become more dependent on low cost foreign refined products output.
11:30 a.m. – 12:15 p.m.
The Most Violent Products: Getting a Grip on Diesel and Jet Fuel
Tancred Lidderdale, Lead Industry Economist, Energy Information Administration
The “middle” of the petroleum barrel continues to inspire a spirited debate. Will diesel fuel, heating oil and jet fuel continue to sell for 40-80cts/gal above gasoline, or does 2008 represent an anomaly not likely to be repeated? EIA expert Tanc Lidderdale has access to the most granular domestic and international data, as well as the brisk trade that now finds cargoes regularly arriving at and departing from U.S. ports. Tanc examines the key fundamentals that may set the stage for some different inter-product relationships in late 2009.
12:15 – 1:45 p.m.
Networking Luncheon
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1:45 – 2:45 p.m.
Beyond the Maddening Crowd: 2008-2009 Technical Forecast
Walter Zimmerman, President, United-ICAP
The last 12 months delivered price moves and altered intra-commodity relationships that in a way confounded nearly everyone that relies on fundamental analysis to make market predictions. But the technicians were a step ahead of everyone, in effect identifying when markets were ready not just to applaud but to render standing ovations in the form of fast-paced spikes and plunges. In this session, widely recognized futures analyst, Walter Zimmerman, delivers his exclusive 2008-2009 forecast and identifies the magic numbers that may represent the ups and downs within the next 6-12 months of trading.
2:45 – 3:30 p.m.
The Price of Gasoline - From What Point of View?
Malcolm Turner, Chairman, Turner, Mason and Company
Who will be the new owners of U.S. refineries and how will the deals be structured? No one has been in the middle of more refining deals this decade than Malcolm Turner, the founder of Turner, Mason and Company. Whether it’s a 50,000 b/d landlocked plant dependent on local crude, or a mega-facility with access to the panoply of global feedstocks, Malcolm’s team is often one of the first stops for mergers & acquisitions’ experts. Get a sense of what a true refining expert deems practical, or a reach, against the backdrop of wildly volatile prices for everything from asphalt to premium gasoline.
3:30 – 4:00 p.m.
Refreshment Break/Exhibit Hall Open
4:00 – 4:45 p.m.
Jet Fuel: Market-Changing Commodity
Wolfgang Bergman, Director, Energy Derivative Sales for Americas, Standard Bank New York
With airlines around the world reinventing their business amid record fuel prices, jet fuel will be the single product most affected by mergers, restructuring, reduced capacity and shorter, more streamlined routes. Indeed, jet fuel demand will undergo a radical change in the fourth quarter of 2008 and in 2009, with estimates that as much as 20 percent of airline capacity could be idled and millions of gallons of jet fuel demand lost, perhaps forcing changes to production states. Wolfgang will offer a better understanding of how refiners, airlines, consumers and others are adjusting to these critical supply changes.
4:45 p.m.
Adjourn for the Day
4:45 – 6:45 p.m.
Opening Night Reception
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Day 2 • Tuesday, October 21, 2008
7:30 – 8:30 a.m.
Continental Breakfast/Registration/Exhibit Hall Open
8:30 – 9:30 a.m.
Infrastructure Growing Pains: The Building Boom for Terminals
Andy Lipow, President, Lipow Oil Associates LLC
The U.S. is on the threshold of adding tens of millions of barrels of crude oil and products’ storage, and an old-fashioned building boom is in progress in many other parts of the world. Ex-oil trader Andy Lipow has specialized in tracking the growth of this segment on six continents and has the most detailed update of what areas of the U.S. may see distribution remain a case of “just in time,” what areas may be “just too late” and even what regions might see “just too much” in the way of stored fuel. Andy has deservedly gained a reputation as an industry thought leader on how new and existing infrastructure may change inter- and intramarket relationships in the U.S. and elsewhere. In this exclusive session, Andy reveals his forecast of how all those tanks might impact physical and paper trading for the next 12 months.
9:30 – 10:15 a.m.
Raising the Stakes: Ethanol’s New Economic and Policy Drivers
Chad Martin, Executive Vice President, Eco-Energy, Inc.
Driven by high energy prices and legislative support, ethanol continues to become a bigger portion of the blend pool every month. Ethanol provides refiners, importers and other obligated parties a solution to ballooning federal blending mandates. Ethanol has evolved from a boutique fuel in the Midwest to a full-blown blend component across the U.S. In this highly informative session, learn how the expanding Renewable Fuels Standard and changes in the blending tax credit are likely to restructure the way oil companies handle, market and price ethanol blends.
Bonus: See the complete evolution of ethanol pricing dynamics, from Spot to Fixed to RBOB to benchmarked price reports and the Chicago Board of Trade.
10:15 – 10:45 a.m.
Refreshment Break
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10:45 – 11:45 a.m.
Eastern Promises: Where Will All the Asia-Pacific Product Go?
Nancy Yamaguchi, President, Trans-Energy Research Associates, Inc.
Are new export refineries that buffet the Pacific and Indian Oceans about to change the fabric of global markets? That’s a question critical not just to western marketers but to everyone in heavily traded destinations or sources from Corpus Christi to Newfoundland. Huge mega-projects from India, Korea and other Asian countries will literally be getting started just as our meeting convenes in mid-October. Hear from a top expert that concentrates specifically on this region and get a first-hand view of what to expect in the last 30-plus months of the decade.
11:45 a.m. – 12:30 p.m.
When Two Hemispheres Collide
Luis Guisti, Senior Advisor, Center for Strategic and International Studies
Assessing the future of North American products is no longer possible without paying particular attention to how the countries to our south handle the flow of oil, the political rhetoric and soaring growth and development. Luis Giusti, the foremost expert on North and South American supply who once headed up the successful expansion of PDVSA, looks at the broad impact that comes with dramatic change in Brazil, Venezuela, Ecuador and other South American countries. Mr. Giusti, who currently serves on the advisory boards of Riverstone-Carlyle and the Stanford Financial Group, also explains how various expansion and constriction will impact supply in the U.S., Canada and Central America.
12:30 – 1:30 p.m.
Networking Lunch
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1:30 – 3:00 p.m.
The New Product Transportation and Infrastructure Paradigm – Panel Discussion
Moderator: Cheryl Trench, Allegro Energy Group
Keith Penn, Colonial Pipeline Co.
Bruce Heine, Magellan Midstream Partners, LP
Brad Oberg, T E Products Pipeline
From CBOB to NLRM, shippers are asking pipelines to carry an increasingly diversified and sensitive product mix to bring new offerings to emerging markets. Find out how these transportation systems are responding to a changing product slate and what new products are coming down the line. Hear exclusive forecasts from our panelists on how new federal regulations for renewables and air quality will reshape the nation’s supply and demand landscape.
3:00 p.m.
Conference Adjourns