The European photovoltaic (PV) market is in full swing, having reached record highs of nearly 60 gigawatt (GW) installed capacity by the end of 2023, a massive 40% increase from 2022. Germany returned to the top spot of installed capacity, reaching 14 GW by the end of 2023. Spain, with 8.2 GW, comes second, while France remains in sixth place, even though it recorded a 25% growth.

However, this exponential growth comes at a price. Global panel production overcapacity, mainly in China, has resulted in Europe importing these less expensive modules at prices that have dropped to record lows, even falling below production costs.

While this might be good news for new solar projects using imported materials, these unbalanced conditions also make it extremely difficult for the European local panel manufacturers to build a strong business case, leaving the European PV landscape in deep distress.

And so, the desire to establish solar PV manufacturing in Europe is back on the agenda again. In an interview with OPIS at the European Industrial PV Day 2024, Vincent Delporte, head of public affairs at Holosolis, explained the company’s ambition is to create a new PV manufacturing facility in Hambach, France, which aims to produce modules and cells on an industrial scale never seen before in Europe. When fully operational in 2029, this new €850 million ($917 million) initiative is expected to produce 10 million solar panels and 550 million solar cells annually, enough to make around one European million households energy self-sufficient every year.

OPIS: Holosolis announced its intention to build a 5 gigawatt solar cell-and-panel factory in northeastern France by the end of next year. What is the status today, are you on schedule?

Holosolis: Everything is on track. The process for securing permits for our factory should be ready by the end of 2024 and construction work is planned for mid-2025. It will take us one year to build the factory and three years to ramp up the production lines to 10 million modules/year at full capacity by 2029.

The discussions with local politicians are very positive and everyone wants this project to start. The French government wants to bring solar manufacturing back to France; they are heavily engaged and involved.

OPIS: You mentioned that Holosolis will focus on Tunnel Oxide Passivated Contact (TOPCon) technology. On the other hand, the market of Heterojunction (HJT) technology is expected to grow by 500% between 2022-2025. Is HJT not a more future-proof technology with a higher efficiency rate and better design options?

Holosolis: We had a lot of discussion about which technology to use, but we saw that in recent years, the market fully moved to TOPCon. Although you noted the high percentile growth for HJT technology, yet the starting volume is still very low. We see TOPCon as better because it is more mature, cheaper to industrialize, uses no rare earths and needs 40% less silver, so TOPCon is less expensive.

Going forward, we probably will move to the Tandem solar cell technology in combination with TOPCon, as it greatly increases overall efficiency. We have TOPCon experts in our team and a strong partnership with the Fraunhofer and IPVF institutes who are world leaders in Tandem technology.

OPIS: Which markets are you focusing on?

Holosolis: We target residential, commercial and industrial sectors, valuing ESG criteria. Holosolis has already signed Letters of Intent for multiple gigawatts’ worth of installations with many European developers and distributors, covering large scale utilities to residential projects. We are not dependent on one large market segment or particular market player, and the diversified nature of the photovoltaic customer base is one of the strengths of the solar market.

OPIS: Another French company, Carbon Photowatt, has also announced its intention to build a 5 GW PV factory in France in the coming year. Is France big enough for two 5 GW factories?

Holosolis: Probably not in the long term if you only consider France, but HoloSolis’s objective is to also serve the broader European market. Our factory is perfectly located in northeastern France to be able to serve 85% of our target markets within one day’s truck drive. For instance, we are looking into Italy, Germany, the Netherlands and Austria. Having two gigafactories in France reflects the motivation of the French government to revitalize the development of PV in Europe.

OPIS: Let’s talk about economics. PV modules assembled in Europe today retail at around 250% of the cost of those manufactured in Asia and so are not competitive on price. Following the implementation of subsidies and investment in PV development in Europe, market analysts suggest that PV manufacturers in the region might be able to narrow this significant price difference to just 15%. Do you believe shrinking this considerable price gap is realistic – and how much time and support would it take to achieve?

Holosolis: This [15% difference] seems very low, but it depends on the point of comparison. If Chinese prices in time increase to €0.150/wp (which is on average their production cost), then we could reach the 15%.

It also depends on what kind of European-made product you want and what the definition will look like; if you use Chinese wafers and import them to produce cells and assemble the panels, this will lower the price. But if the whole value chain is EU-made, this will make the end-product more expensive. I expect panel prices in the €0.20/wp-€0.30/wp-range for entirely EU-made manufacturing products. The math works because a solar project developer will benefit from higher feed in tariff revenues or tax credits if they use solar panels made in the EU.

(Note: OPIS currently assesses between €0.085/wp and €0.120/wp for imported Asian panels)

OPIS: The European legislator created a new regulatory framework, the Net-Zero Industry Act (NZIA) to boost development and competitiveness of clean energy sectors, including solar PV. The Act is expected to be approved and published in January 2025, after which Member States have 18 months to implement it. Is the NZIA too little too late?

Holosolis: No, I think the timing is perfect for us: the NZIA package will be in place across all EU member states when we start production. And the good news is that some countries such as France, Italy and Austria are ahead of schedule and have already proposed regulations that implement those of the NZIA. Companies who are active today in the PV market might find the wait challenging indeed. A lot of investors still remember the many bankruptcies of the past, but they also see that new regulations are irreversibly changing the landscape.