Get ready for wild swings in demand across all transportation fuels in 2021. Then, combine those likely gyrations in consumption with a fast-chasing supply picture that is certain to feature major overreactions. OPIS’ top oil analyst Tom Kloza has seen it all with a career stretching from 1975 into 2021. In this cornerstone presentation, Tom will look at the interplay between carbon management, “green initiatives,” the rationalization of North American refining and the behavioral changes that persist or fade in response to the path for COVID-19. Bonus: He’ll talk about the “streamlining” of EPA regulations and what it will and will not mean to the relationship between crude and motor fuel as well as traditional relationships in futures’ markets. Anyone dealing with a fuel budget should regard this as a “can’t miss” introduction to 2021.
Preeminent technical analyst, and an OPIS attendee favorite, Walter Zimmerman will walk through the current price trends and what the price action is telling us. While many analysts will make price predictions based on the fundamentals, Zimmerman relies on historical price data and wave theory to determine where prices may be going next. Don’t miss this exclusive presentation!
Q&A/Monday Session Ends
The rapid deployment of COVID-19 vaccines will enable a transition to the new post-pandemic economy in 2021. The reopening of economies will gradually unleash a new wave of spending on travel and services, sending global real GDP to a new peak. Recovery timelines will vary across sectors and regions of the world, however, depending on the strains of rising public and private debt and diminishing fiscal stimulus. Price outlooks will reflect the cross-currents of resurgent industrial materials costs, slack labor markets, and excess supply in some markets. Prospects for the US dollar and other major currencies will be shaped by rising investor risk tolerance, interest rate spreads, and shifting current-account balances. Join one of the industry’s most respected experts, Sara Johnson as she outlines what this means for you and your operations in 2021 and beyond.
2021 ushered in a new president and early expectations is that the Biden Administration will have a strict carbon reducing regimen for the United States. Expectations are for a more friendly atmosphere for biofuels and a likely more challenging environment for traditional hydrocarbon producers. There are few inside or outside the Beltway that can break down policy impacts better than Kevin Book who will take a look at the Biden environmental policies and what they might mean for the petroleum supply chain.
Q&A/Tuesday Session Ends
Improved fuel efficiency, the electrification of new vehicles, and more and more employees working from home have long-term fuel demand trends pointing downward, yet interest in retail assets via both acquisition and new builds seems to be at an all-time high. Brock will guide us through current trends and a forecast of retail asset valuation as we prepare for more M&A activity in a post-COVID-19 environment.
Despite the Pandemic, 2020 was a record year for mergers & acquisitions involving retail stations, and distributors of traditional and new fuel. Much of the rationale for the hectic pace of M&A comes from the “essential” nature of a business which thrived despite the most formidable obstacles of the 21st century. John Flippen has done about as many downstream deals as anyone in the business, guiding marketers with transactional advisory services on the buy-side or sell-side of deals. Through Petroleum Capital & Real Estate (PetroCapRE), he’s an expert in raising debt or equity as well as refinancing and restructuring. John will candidly discuss the motives for buyers and sellers with a focus on the best approaches for expansion, buyouts, sales, or mergers in a hot petroleum real estate market.
Q&A/Wednesday Session Ends
Carbon has long been a concern in the petroleum industry and several programs have set out to put a price on carbon that has ramifications throughout the supply chain. California is the incubator for such programs such as the Low Carbon Fuel Standard and the states Cap & Trade Program that petroleum suppliers are obligated parties. These types of programs that add to the price of gasoline may soon be coming to other states, with some talk about a national LCFS program getting some traction. OPIS’ expert on the LCFS and Cap & Trade programs, Dolores Santos has intimate knowledge of these programs having formerly lived the programs at a large California jobber and has advised companies on how to navigate the programs in their buying strategies.
As a liquid fuel retailer, by putting an electric vehicle charger in my forecourt expediting my own demise? That may be a question retailers are asking themselves when weighing the potential to put an charger at their site. If retailers wait for customer adoption for EVs to reach critical mass the move is likely to take decades. However, governments are forcing the issue with announced bans on internal combustion engine vehicles. Is there a first mover advantage? Fuels Institute Executive Director John Eichberger studies the numbers and the trends in liquid fuels as well as electrification of the fleet and will provide you a deep understanding of what’s next and why.