Based on comments made during and after the campaign, OPIS analysts believe that the new regime will review everything with a fine-toothed comb, which stands to slow down the pace of change.
OPIS expects that the AMLO administration will start reviewing previous agreements immediately, before the new president takes office.
AMLO’s future Secretary of the Treasury said government will not freeze the price of fuel, but will continue to control increases by moving the IEPS tax accordingly. The new government is also not expected to eliminate the IEPS tax, since it’s an important source of income for the federal government.
AMLO’s focus on oil exploration and production contracts – combined with his relative silence on fuel markets – suggest that he agrees with the implementation of downstream energy reforms. Third-party investment in storage, pipelines and new retail brands continues in the meantime, as does work at energy-related government agencies.
AMLO and his energy secretary have said they want Mexico to stop importing gasoline within three years to decrease the country’s energy dependence on other nations. This entails the renovation of several existing refineries and the construction of at least one new refinery, widely believed planned for the southern states of Campeche, Tabasco or both. There has been less discussion about how Mexico would pay for a multi-billion-dollar greenfield refinery project.