U.S. natural gas supply, demand and exports are all surging to record, never before seen levels as the market enters the pivotal winter of 2019-20. While storage inventories have stabilized, price levels are hovering near three-year lows as supply could reach its zenith in the months to come. Natural Gas Next begins with a real-time analysis of the current supply and demand balance and expectations for winter 2019-20, summer 2020 and beyond.
Lower 48 natural gas production continues to make and break records. How long can this run last and where is the pressure mounting the most? Associated gas production adds a new level of complexity that will move the market in a new direction. How does U.S. competitiveness in the oil patch impact the production rate of natural gas? Pipeline constraints also factor in to how much production can grow in certain areas of the country.
Exports are a critical component of current and future demand growth for U.S. natural gas. With new U.S. liquefaction units coming online in the next year, LNG feed gas deliveries could rise to more than 8 Bcf/d over the next 6 months. In this section we’ll look at expectations in the near term as a second wave of North American LNG projects reach FID status and the net impact on demand and supply. Will also take a hard look at where North American fits in the global LNG marketplace and how this will impact overall levels of export demand.
The forecast for gas-fired power demand is featured in this section. As natural gas has risen as the fuel of choice for electric generators across the country, we’ll explore this evolution, provide a forecast for the sector and assess threats to its newfound dominance. Other factors impacting the sector will be explored including: renewables penetration, battery grid storage, and the evolution of the dispatch curve.
Northeast gas production has not fully subscribed to takeaway capacity expansions built over the past 12 months. This session will look at how gas flows have changed and what neighboring market regions can expect in the future. We’ll provide a forecast of regional basis pricing points and what factors of supply and demand will make these prices move.
At the crossroads of multiple pipeline networks in the U.S. and Canada, gas flow dynamics across the Mid-continent are volatile, and competition to capture its tremendous demand potential is intense. What will be the shape of Midcontinent demand in the near future and how will this impact the price of gas in the region. Will the region change face and become a pass through net exporter of natural gas to neighboring regions?
Canadian imports are bottled up this summer and production has seen notable decline across the western provinces. What is the future for Canada as its main destination for export place has become oversupplied? More importantly do prices in the producing areas of the country have any hope of recovery? What is the future of domestic and LNG export demand?
Permian oil and gas production are stymied by capacity constraints, which will be relieved this fall and throughout the course of 2020. New Texas sourced gas will be unleashed and penetrate both domestic and global markets. Where will it go and what will the impact be on price and basis in the region and surrounding areas?
Meanwhile, the Southeast is the center of growing demand including power, industrial and an expansive LNG export market. As such, prices in this region make it the market most sought out by the rest of the country. How will this region evolve over the next 18 months?
As with the Permian, associated gas has greatly increased its share of Rockies gas production as producers have focused on recovering crude oil. At the same time, gas from other regions is competing in traditional Rockies markets. Western markets may be the first to move away from gas in favor of renewables – initiatives are already in place in California with other states in the Pacific Northwest prepared to follow. How will this impact current flow, supply, demand and price in the region?
Hear final thoughts from Natural Gas Next presenters, ask probing questions and get those questions answered!