Carbon Markets Mixed Monday Amid Energy Executive Order Uncertainty
California Carbon Allowance secondary market prices stumbled Monday morning, sinking further following President Trump’s executive order last week targeting state-level emissions reduction efforts. Meanwhile, Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative prices were up slightly, and Washington Carbon Allowances weakened based on lower offers.
The CCA V25 December 2025 contract traded at $26.53/metric ton and $26.85/mt on the Intercontinental Exchange as of 1:30 p.m. ET Monday. OPIS on Friday assessed the CCA V25 December 2025 price at $26.89/mt, down more than $2/mt on the week.
The ICE CCA V25 April 2025 contract traded at $25.58/mt and $25.85/mt by midday Monday. OPIS on Friday assessed the CCA V25 April 2025 price at $25.90/mt.
OPIS CCA prices Friday were down $2.715/mt for April and $2.735/mt for December compared to a week ago.
North American compliance carbon market prices sank during trade following the executive order, titled “Protecting American Energy from State Overreach.” The order specifically called out the emissions cap in California as one that “punishes carbon use by adopting impossible caps on the amount of carbon
businesses may use, all but forcing businesses to pay large sums to ‘trade’ carbon credits to meet California’s radical requirements.”
California Air Resources Board Chair Liane Randolph said Wednesday that the state would continue to maintain its authority to curb emissions.
“Since our first climate change scoping plan, we have used a portfolio approach that includes performance standards, incentives and carbon pricing,” according to a statement from Randolph. “Emissions have gone down while [the] economy has grown. We are committed to defending our record of success.”
OPIS CCA prices Wednesday reached their lowest mark since September 2022, according to OPIS data. The OPIS assessment of $26.225/mt on Wednesday was the weakest for the current year forward delivery since $26.085/mt on Sept. 27, 2022.
The 2025 floor price, or auction reserve price, is set at $25.87/mt. CCA contracts traded below that level on Wednesday following the executive order, before rising later in the day.
Prior to last week, CCA trade prices had not fallen below the auction floor, which often serves as a soft floor to secondary market trade prices as well, since March 2020. Prices most recently dipped below the then-floor of $16.68/mt on March 17, 2020, when they were assessed at $16.58/mt for prompt delivery at
the beginning of the Covid-19 pandemic.
OPIS CCA V25 December 2025 prices had already dropped below $30/mt multiple times this year following mounting uncertainty about the timeline for the state’s Cap-and-Trade Program Update process to be completed. The process began in 2022.
Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative secondary market prices recovered Monday morning following significant losses last week.
The ICE RGGI V25 December 2025 contract traded at $18/short ton and $18.40/st by 1:30 p.m. ET Monday. OPIS assessed the blended RGGI V24/V25 December 2025 price at $17.525/st on Friday.
The ICE RGGI V25 April 2025 contract was bid at $17.40/st and offered at $17.57/st by midday Monday. OPIS assessed the blended RGGI V24/V25 April 2025 price at $16.985/st on Friday.
RGGI prices Friday were down $4.84/st for April and $4.93/st for December compared to a week ago.
Last week’s executive order, in addition to singling out California, called out rulemaking for forthcoming cap-and-invest programs in New York and Vermont as “extortion.”
In a Tuesday news release, New York Gov. Kathy Hochul said the Trump administration has already taken $325.5 million in federal funding for future state infrastructure and resilience projects and another $56 million for projects that have already started.
While other compliance market prices recovered last Thursday, the RGGI market sank further on a second day following the executive order.
OPIS RGGI prices on Thursday fell below the 2025 cost containment trigger price of $17.03/st for the first time this year, which in the past has served as a soft price ceiling for secondary market RGGI prices, but has been less so as the CCR has been depleted in recent years.
The OPIS RGGI forward delivery price Thursday reached lower than it had since an assessment of $16.35/st on March 14, 2024.
Also last week, Pennsylvania Republican lawmakers introduced a bill April 7 allowing the Department of Environmental Protection to create a measure for General Assembly consideration to limit carbon emissions and repeal regulations regarding the state’s participation in RGGI.
Rep. James Stuzzi (R) introduced House Bill 1164, co-sponsored by 25 Republican representatives. The bill would authorize the DEP to have a public comment process on a proposed draft legislation to limit carbon emissions within 180 days and have a minimum of four public hearings.
The bill included a memo dated Dec. 9, 2024, which aimed to repeal RGGI regulations. Pennsylvania officially joined RGGI in 2022, but has been prevented from participating in the quarterly auctions due to legal challenges.
RGGI also announced Tuesday its second quarterly auction will be held June 4. The auction will offer 15.24 million allowances.
The first quarterly auction in March sold out of 15.39 million RGGI allowances at a clearing price of $19.76/st. The 2025 cost containment reserve of 8.13 million allowances was exhausted at the auction.
Washington Carbon Allowance secondary market prices were pointed lower amid softening offers.
The ICE WCA V25 December 2025 contract was bid at $57.11/mt and offered at $57.50/mt by 1:30 p.m. ET Monday. OPIS on Friday assessed the WCA V25 December 2025 price at $58/mt.
The ICE WCA V25 April 2025 contract was bid at $55.50/mt and offered at $55.89/mt by midday Monday. OPIS assessed the WCA V25 March 2025 price at $56.25/mt on Friday.
WCA prices Friday were down $1.78/mt for April and $2/mt for December compared to a week ago, also driven downward by the executive order.
Reporting by Christie Citranglo, ccitranglo@opisnet.com
Editing by Slade Rand, srand@opisnet.com and Kylee West, kwest@opisnet.com
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