Agenda

Day 1 | Wednesday, October 24, 2018

 

8:00 – 9:00 am

Registration/Continental Breakfast

 

9:00 – 9:30 am

Welcome and Opening Remarks

Denton Cinquegrana, Chief Oil Analyst, Oil Price Information Service

How have fuels’ relationships changed through the decades and through the last years, and what will be the pivot points that influence liquid fuels into the next decade? With a career that spans covering upstream, midstream and downstream energy, Denton will separate myth from reality as to factors that will shape fuel choices well into the next decade. He will set the table for a blue-ribbon line-up of experts, outlining the pathways that might be taken from 2019-2030.

9:30 – 10:15 am

Just Added! Technology Keynote | Preparing for Disruptive Decade

Egil Juliussen, Ph.D. Director of Research & Principal Analyst, Automotive Technology, IHS Markit

There’s widespread agreement that liquid fuels will gradually give way to high technology EV development, but when might that happen and where can one see the “early innings” of the game in progress? When will autonomous driving impact liquid fuels’ consumption? Will the new business model of “mobility as a service” disrupt the ownership model that is now critical to both the fuel and automotive industries? Will there be multiple geographic tipping points or one monolithic sea change?

IHS Markit’s leading expert on autonomous technology, Dr. Egil Juiliussen, spends each and every day analyzing new technologies as well as global demographic changes that are driving disruptive automotive change. He will tackle these critical questions and detail some likely calendar dates for shifts in vehicle type, driving demographics, and the impact of the “connected car.” Attendees will get the best possible preview of when technological “majors” may become more important than traditional multinational oil companies. Find out what the global fueling business might look like in 2025, 2030, 2035, 2040, and beyond.

10:15 11:15 am

Panel Discussion: Inside the Refinery Gate

Terry Higgins, THigginsEnergy
Blake Eskew, VP, Downstream Energy Research & Consulting, IHS Markit
Dave Hirshfeld, President, MathPro, Inc.

Golden Age or Golden Moments? You’ve undoubtedly heard from top commodity traders that North American refiners are in the early stages of a new “Golden Age” that will see robust refinery margins, and unprecedented export demand for transportation fuels. Some of this is related to an unprecedented demand surge tied to new International Maritime Organization rules that will require refineries to tweak yields and alter crude slates so that there is enough diesel and jet fuel for traditional transportation needs as well as for marine blending. While all of this is happening, many refiners will look to raise runs, and produce more high-octane components needed to offset the lower octane material that comes with running more shale oil. There’s even the worry that some of the vacuum gasoil that normally gets turned into gasoline and diesel will instead be rerouted to the bunker market. The thirst for more octane and the need for more distillate probably represents the most substantial change for refiners since the desulfurization of products more than a decade ago.

11:15 11:45 am

Refreshment Break

 

11:45 am 12:30 pm

All the Molecules: What the Research Shows

John Farrell, Laboratory Program Manager Vehicle Technologies, National Renewable Energy Laboratory

What do the researchers say about the new and legacy molecules that will be necessary to fuel the fleet in the next decade? John Farrell leads the Co-Optimization of Fuels and Engines (Co-Optima) effort which includes multiple labs at multiple offices managed by the Department of Energy and focuses specifically on the co-optimization of new high-performance fuels and high efficiency engines. With a background in chemistry and a 15-year stint as a researcher for ExxonMobil, John will give the lowdown on how science may shape the U.S. fuels’ future.

12:30 – 1:30 pm

Networking Lunch

 

1:30 2:15 pm

On the Water: IMO: Ripples or Rip Tides for Fuel Relationships

Sandeep Sayal, Vice President, Downstream, IHS Markit

One needs to hearken back to the enactment of the Clean Air Act to find a fuel specification shift that threatens to alter refinery margins, run yields, supply and pricing across the barrel. Yet, that is precisely what may happen as the International Maritime Organization’s (IMO) desulfurization rules loom in January 2020. The top expert in IHS Markit’s broad brain trust will look at all the various scenarios that may occur before, during and immediately after implementation of rules that will drastically impact what goes in and what comes out of refineries, and dramatic new differences in the way fuels and feedstocks are valued. Sandeep will simplify all the moving parts of IMO and detail how each part of the barrel may be impacted, and what it means for new fuels.

2:15 3:00 pm

Renewable Diesel: The Next Wave

Dayne Delahoussaye, Head of North American Public Affairs, Neste

The impact of renewable diesel can no longer be ignored. By some estimates, the renewable diesel market could expand to a global value of over $30 billion by 2025, with California and other states with clean fuel initiatives providing incentives that will help the fuel get even more traction. Hear from the clear leading company that has pioneered the distribution of this product, blazing a trail that dozens of companies hope to follow. Get caught up with why in many markets, renewable diesel may far eclipse biodiesel as the clean fuel of the future, particularly for fleets.

3:00 3:15 pm

Refreshment Break

 

3:15 4:00 pm

The Case for 95-RON

Geoff Moody, VP Government Affairs, American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers

The American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufactures (AFPM) made waves this spring when the association recommended that the U.S. adopt a fuel-neutral 95-RON octane performance standard. The high-octane gas might address the need of all stakeholders including OEMs, marketers, biofuel producers, and of course the 95% of refining that AFPM represents. In what promises to be a lively session, Geoff Moody will outline why refiners believe the lofty octane standard will be a ‘win-win’ proposition for most parties, and why the investment needed for the move might alienate proponents of the RFS. Attendees will get an assessment of the vast investments that are at stake, as well as why 95-RON might make sense for all regions, even California. Is there any room for compromise with biofuel proponents? You’ll want to catch this session to gauge the steep operational and political challenges coming in the next decade.

4:00 6:30 pm

Networking Reception

 

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Day 2 | Thursday, October 25, 2018

 

8:00 9:00 am

Registration Open/Continental Breakfast

 

9:00 9:45 am

How Biofuels Can Make a Difference in New Fuels’ Slates

Monte Shaw, Executive Director, Iowa Renewable Fuels’ Association

It’s been a tough 2018 for the biofuels’ business, but things change. New fuel requirements could light up the radar screens for transportation fuel suppliers in the next few years, even if CAFÉ standards are frozen at 2020 levels. Monte Shaw will make the case for E15 and even higher mid-level blends, and detail why what happened in 2018 may not be indicative of the policies adopted inside the beltway into the next decade. Against the backdrop of likely plentiful North American ethanol supplies, Monte will give his industry’s view as to the future of RINs, biofuel formulae, and indeed the future of the RFS.

9:45 10:45 am

Beyond the Special Interests: What Will Power the Wheels?

Kevin Lindemer, Executive Managing Director, IHS Markit

Veteran agricultural and fossil fuels analyst Kevin Lindemer has an intimate knowledge of advances in corn production and an even more expert knowledge in North American fueling infrastructure. He is also in tune with the decarbonization process that will be driven by policy. In a no-nonsense objective session, Kevin will wade through the acronyms (CAFE, CA, LCFS, RFS etc.) and measure the likely speed of change; the move toward renewable diesel and biodiesel and the implications for refining and logistics. Find out what represents a threat, and what represents an opportunity in all of the transportation segments.

10:45  11:00 am

Refreshment Break

 

11:00  11:45 am

The Numbers: Trends that Lie Behind and Beyond the Data

Robert Sharp, Managing Editor, OPIS PetroChemWire

You can’t understand the prospects or dynamics for new fuels without a look at contemporary numbers for the various ingredients that make up any liquid fuel. Long-time reporter Robert Sharp has followed supply and pricing trends for all of the components that influence the finished cost of fuel with a special focus on imports and exports. In a fitting close to a conference that spent plenty of time on technology, policy, and demographics, Sharp will take a keen look at the numbers all of the molecules in the liquid fuel universe, from alkylate to xylene. He’ll be joined by several previous speakers in a wrap-up session that should yield insight as to how 21st century economics may dictate short, medium, and long term prospects for fuel.

11:45 am

Conference Adjourns

 

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Agenda subject to change without notice.